What do we think of the Jays after the first month of the season? There is a lot I'd do differently if I were running the team but I don't run the team! How have the Jays done so far? They are a work in progress but there is a lot to be excited about and part of what we can be excited about is the learning experience. For example, I don't expect Montoyo to be manager of the year. He makes mistakes and will continue to do so, but he is learning how to manage, establishing a style, learning from the errors of past Jays teams and all that is to the good. I think these good things will continue this year regardless of how well the Jays end up playing and remember, I thought they would lose 95 games.
The first good thing is that we are seeing a lot of the young and almost young talent. With Guerrero now up, sports commentators seem happy, but the decision to trade Morales (even if it meant eating a large hunk of his contract) had made regularly playing time for Tellez. Since I think Smoak is on the block, I think Tellez will get more and more time as the summer goes along. McKinney, Jansen, Drury, and Hernandez are also getting regular playing time. These are not all working out precisely the way one might want but we are getting to see what these players can do.
I also like the fact that Montoyo and the front office don't seem to react quickly to a bad game or outing or string of at bats. Jansen's offence has been sub-par; Drury's war is horrible, McKinney, Tellez and Thornton have been inconsistent but Jays keep trotting them out there. I don't know of Thornton is in a Jays future rotation but I'd like to find out and the only way that is going to happen is by giving him at least 20 straight starts. Likewise, Gaviglio has done really good job in the pen and the Jays have left him there. Good. If you have already decided that he is not in your rotation of the future (which likely consists of some combination of Thornton, Borucki, Reid-Foley, Pearson and Zuech or either Sanchez or Stroman, whomever survives this summer without being traded for yet more prospects), then let's see what value he can do in that role.
And to Montoyo's credit he has let Gaviglio establish himself in what is, right now, an unorthodox role: the long man. When I was a kid, all bullpens carried one. Usually, this was a young up and coming starter or former starter or failed starter. Their job was to go into games when a starter was knocked out early and pitch for a multiple innings to get to the more glamorous middle or short guys at the front end of the bullpen. It was an important role that was ditched with the move to one-inning max effort go in and throw really really hard for one inning bullpens.
I like Montoyo because he is not trying to replicate what was done in his former job with Tampa Bay. Toronto spent years trying to perfect the one inning per relief pitcher bullpen, largely to no avail. In effect, they tried to copy KC and Tampa Bay without knowing why other than those teams appeared (in the case of KC it was more than appearance) to be successful. The problem was that the Jays didn't have the talent to do that and so they spent the better part of most years looking for ways to bullet and idiot proof a bullpen with this plan: starter goes 6, following by reliever A, B, and C, pitching one inning each. Montoyo did not try to do this. Instead, he looked at this talent and said "what do I have that I can use?" Gaviglio can pitch several innings at a pop as a former starter.
You can see the merits of this, if it work. It allows you to carry fewer pitchers in your bullpen and, hence, more position players on the bench, which, in turn, gives that manager greater flexibility. At times last year, the Jays were carrying 13 pitchers (8 in the pen) and Buck and Tabby talked incessantly about the need for "fresh arms." A bullpen that included Gaviglio, Pannone, and Biagini (if he can get back on track) would give them a number of pitchers who could go in for 3 innings with Pannone doubling as a situational lefty. I like the idea of moving the pitching staff in a different direction that is based on the talent the Jays have and what they can do, rather than trying to find pitchers who can be put into a scheme created by another team with different talent.
I still think that Shapiro intends to trade people. I think Buckholz, Richards, Hudson, one of Galvis and Sogard are on the block along, almost certainly, with Smoak. Richards and Phelps if they get healthy and Maille and Brito. I think the Jays would listen to offers for Giles, Sanchez, Mayza and Drury along with Brito but I also think that nothing is written in stone. Shapiro would prefer to trade players but he will wait to see if he can get the right deal and there are some I think he'd like to keep. For instance, I think Brito and Drury are auditioning for bench roles. They are the kinds of players -- like Pannone -- that you like to keep around because they add value to an already good team. They have multiple skills and are flexible. Galvis and Sogard, on the other hand, have increased their value and likely will be dealt because they are not the future of the Jays, however well they are playing. Their problem is that they are not really role players (although Sogard could be) and play positions that will be occupied by people named Bichette and Biggio, and maybe Gurriel or Urena by the end of this year.
This is the one area that the Jays need to work on: middle infield. They began this year with slew of middle infielders and complicated the matter by getting still more. Diaz was traded but instantly replaced by Galvis, Sogard, and the now DFAed Hanson. Travis is on the IL, but you have to figure he is on the way out. I don't understand the decision to play AAA yo yo with Urena, particularly since he seemed to be playing well both offensively and defensively. He also has some flexibility and can play third as well as second and short. Likewise, the decision to move Gurriel full time to second is odd since that is not his best position and it is not clear that Bichette can play short and Biggio plays second as well. Thus, the Jays have three good young potential stars of the future stacked up at second base while short is being positioned by veterans who are on the plus side of 30. I read somewhere that Gurriel will start taking reps in the outfield at AAA, a rumour that was floated in spring training as well. I'll come back to this in a minute.
My best guess here is that the Jays front office does not see the need to make a middle infield decision *right now.* And, like the trades they might make, they see no need to potentially rush a decision. But, this is one area where I think they are wrong. I don't think anything is gained on the long term by playing Gurriel at 2nd and sending him to AAA or by keeping Urena in AAA but since the Jays don't appear to be in a hurry to address the middle infield log jam, I think we will see more of this at least until the all-star break. It is also possible that the Jays will try to move one or more of their bevy of good young middle infielders to another position, say outfield where they lack the type of Grade A prospect they have around the infield. Biggio looks like he will hit well enough to play, say, left field but with Gurriel now, potentially, moving to the outfield as well ....
Here is the problem I see with that. The problem is that an organization can mess up a good player by trying to get them to do multiple things. Some players (a blessed few actually) can play a range of positions well. Russell Martin, oddly, might have been one of those guys but Robin Yount, for the Brewers, ended up being one, as did Craig Biggio, for the Astros. The defense that Sanzhez was publicly complaining about the other day is, in part, the product of playing players out of position. One's second baseman is rarely a good right fielder because, if they were, they'd be playing right field. What this means is this: the best thing the Jays can do for Gurriel is put him in a position and let him play that position. If that is left field or right field, OK, but put him in and leave him there. The fact that five years ago he played 30 games (or, whatever) in the Cuba league in the outfield is neither here nor there when thinking about what he will do at the major league level. What the Jays should not do is tell him that they are (a) moving him to 2nd, then play him a game at 1st, then shift him back to 2nd, then drop him to AAA to learn how to play 2nd but put him at DH or in the outfield.
Who knows what will happen but this is what the Jays could look like in September:
1B: Tellez
2B: Biggio
3B: Guerrero
SS: Bichette
LF: Gurriel
CF: Grichuk
RF: McKinney
DH: Hernandez
INF: Drury
OF: Britto
C: Jansen
C: McGuire
SP: Thorton
SP: Stroman
SP: Borucki
SP: Reid-Foley
SP: ?
RP: Gaviglio
RP: Pannone
RP: Biagini
RP: etc.
With the exception of a 5th starter and the bullpen, this would, in effect, put in place the team that should be able to play some good and exciting ball next year.
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