Rumours of Outfielders: The Blue Jays Off Season (Part I)

The Blue Jays have been linked to just about every possible significant deal in the major leagues. Last night, I saw another story, suggesting that George Springer would sign with either the Jays or the Mets. It is, of course, difficult to know what to make of off season trade rumours. Some of them might be exploratory meetings ... just seeing if we are on the same page? No, OK, no harm, no foul. Some of them might be pure media speculation. Some of them might be wish fulfillment. And, still others, appear to be planted with the aim of driving up market values. Generally, I try to not pay too much attention to specific trade rumours or potential free agent signings for precisely these reasons. It is better to wait and see what shakes down than waste a lot of time speculating on something that never really was in the first place.  This said, I find some of the players to whom the Jays have been linked odd, even if they eventually do pan out. Let me take a couple of examples.

First, Francisco Lindor who would supposedly be traded for a package of players that could include Loudres Gouriel. Lindor is an amazing player. He's a gold glove shortstop, has an .854 OPS, which translates into 100 rums (give or take) per year. He is not the best base runner but he is good and he has far better than mid-range power. At 27, you basically know what you are going to get with him -- although he could take one further step forward -- and what you get is good. And, while one can never say for sure, it is likely that he will maintain this level of production for another 4-5 years.  He has only one year left on his contact that will pay him 21$ million and I read somewhere (although I can't find the reference) that the Jays wanted a sign and trade deal before they traded. Said differently, if they would trade for Lindor, it would not be for a one-year rental.

By contrast, Gouriel has never quite lived up to expectations. He is good. His OPS is, in fact, higher than Lindor's (I get my. data from Baseball Reference) and he is a year younger. In addition, he's handled the move to left field well. His defensive WAR (dWAR, a measure of defensive value)  is not gold glove quality and I doubt it ever will be, but he's breaking even and if he can maintain that OPS or take a step forward offensively (which is not a pipe dream), that is more than good enough to keep him in the lineup even with a slight negative dWAR.  

So, what are his problems? Gouriel's key problems strike me as twofold (1) he has had a hard time staying in the lineup (I'll come back to this when we look at George Springer). That is an issue for the Jays particularly since the team is not loaded with capable outfielders. And (2) his is a really streaky hitter. On the surface of it, then, a trade seem to make sense for the Jays. 

Except: 

• Getting rid of Gouriel does not solve the Jays' outfield problems. If anything it magnifies them. Hernandez really can't play the outfield and the range of things Grichuk does well is limited (and, apparently, the Jays are considering trading him).
• Lindor is not going to play the outfield so trading Gouriel means that the Jays will need to make another deal for an outfielder or consider relocating someone from the infield there. The truth is that the only candidate is really Biggio, but he may be the best defensive infielder the Jays have (Bichette's are actually a bit better but the sample is small).  To my eye, he has not shown the same capacity in the outfield and so why one would trade your left fielder to move your second baseman to the outfield is not clear to me, particularly when there is no evidence he would play that position well. Moreover, left field is an offensive position. Biggio's numbers -- and skill range -- is very good if his position is second base. Exactly how they stack up in the outfield (one's abilities relative the rest of the players at your position is measured by a stat called OPS+) at a position with which he is far less familiar, which he has not played well in the past, and which is far more offensively oriented than his current position, is not at all clear. You see what I am saying, starting to move him around to accommodate Lindor and address a speculative Gouriel departure could wind up creating a real mess. 
• Trading for Lindor would, of necessity, involve moving current shortstop (Bichette) to another position, a reality he acknowledges, presumably to second base to cover the space left by Biggio's hypothetical move to LF.  The same situation recurs except that now it is not just Biggio learning a new position, but Biggio and Bichette. 

Other rumours to which the Jays are linked involve the same kind of convoluted moves, including the Jays supposed interest in Justin Turner and DJ LeMahieu (see MLB Trade Rumours). Both are established stars but they also bring with them the same need to move players around. LeMahieu might be easiest to accommodation because he could play first base if Vladi is moved back to third. This likely leaves Tellez without a job as one is going to guess that Hernandez will become the every day DM in the relatively near future.  But, the other issue is age. Turner is 35 with a history of injuries and plays 3B, supposedly the position to which Guerrero wants to return next year. LeMahieu is 31, which is getting old for an infielder. He can play a number of positions but he has also spent his life playing in some of the most hitter friendly parks in the game. It is difficult to see him replicating his Yankees numbers wherever Toronto ends up playing and it is difficult to see him replicating those numbers over several years.  To get him, the Jays would supposedly have put about 125$ million on the line in a multiyear contract. 

George Springer is the other player in whom the Jays are supposedly seriously interested. I won't repeat comments I've made earlier about free agent signings not being "sweepstakes" but calculation and contract except to say that this kind of discourse (sweepstakes) really gives a false impression of what baseball teams should be trying to with free agent signings. Springer is 30 years old and, I gather, is looking for a five-year contract that would take him to 35. If you wonder why I keep noting age, it is that age is an important consideration in assessing talent. Springer's numbers are good -- really, really good -- but they come with two significant qualifications.  The Jays are short on outfielders and they are short on good outfielders and so this kind of addition makes more sense. It is simpler, cleaner, does not require moving players around and does not require trading younger talent. What are the qualifications:

1. He has an injury history and it is significant.  Last year was last year. He played regularly and that is a good thing but we can't really use it because of the condensed schedule. Throwing out last year, Springer has not played a full season since 2016, when he was 26. IOW, in 2017, 2018, and 2019 Springer missed significant playing time. 
2. His talent base is difficult to assess because of the Astros cheating scandal. We still don't know how far and how deep this scandal went and Springer is not usually associated with those players who were knee deep in it. It does not disqualify him as a free agent signing (although, if it were me, it would raise questions). What it does is add an unknown to the picture, making it a bit murkier.

I want to be clear on this. I am not saying that the Jays should not sign Springer. What I am saying is that as a longer-term investment designed to win baseball games, there are some negatives. All players have these and this is what management needs to assess when it signs players. Longer-term contracts to players over 30 tend to mean, for instance, that one will overpay on the back end. While you might, for instance, get good 2020 and 2021 seasons, all other things being equal, the value of that player will begin to decline after that despite the fact that his salary will remain really high or might even get higher. There are a few players that buck the trend, of course, and that is another consideration. 

In the same way, injuries are an issue because you are paying a player not to play. The key example here, for the Jays, was Tulo. According to Baseball Reference the Jays paid (or, will pay) Tulo 118$ million. He was their regular shortstop for one season (2016) after joining the team for its 2015 playoff run. He was a serious upgrade at short both offensively and defensively but he was not stellar.  In 2016 he had an OPS+ rating of 102. What this means is that he was 2% better (a 100 score is even) than other players at his position. He has a 0.6 dWAR that year which means he also made a defensive contribution. What the Jays need to ask, however, is this: was he worth 118$ million?  The Jays still owe about 4$ million of that this year coming as a buy out. Thus from 2018 to 2021 (which has not yet happened), the Jays have been paying a player who has not only not been on the field for them but who is no longer on their team. I like to let this sink in, from 2018 forward, the Jays have paid 58$ million to a player who has not played a single inning for them. In total, the Jays paid 118$ million for what amounts to a season of average baseball. 

I mention this because it is important context before one goes out and signs free agents or makes trades for high priced players. There are a range of considerations. The Tulo deal really hampered the Jays ability to field a team in 2018 and 2019 because they hand spent so much money on player a player who was not on the field. Tulo is not the only cause of this, of course, and he really was an amazing player in his prime. I don't want to sell him short.  What I am talking about here is the calculus of baseball. If you make the right decision, you are in great shape. If you make the wrong decision, it can haunt you for years. 

How do you know if you have made the right or wrong decision? That might not be as easy to assess as we think and I will pick that up in my next blog.