I was watching my morning sports show and the announcers were at great pains to explain that the Jays were a defense first team. This was, I think, to partially excuse what has been (a few recent games excepted) a pretty anemic offence. In fact, this has become the company line. It is repeated on Jays Central, during games, and hyperbole abounds when someone does make a fine defensive play. The only problem with the company line: it just isn't true. A quick look at dWar (a metric that measures defensive) shows that only Dalton Varsho and Kiner-Falefa are having really good years. Alejandro Kirk is putting up good defensive numbers but his offence is so bad, his defensive just can't compensate. Bo Bichette -- whose improved defence is supposedly the result of hard work -- is break even. Springer, Schneider, Guerrero and Turner have negative dWars. They are not horrible but they are playing defense in a way that is not helping the team.
No one should be particularly surprised buy this. Schneider has been asked to learn a new position. My own view is that he plays outfield about as well as the average infielder. No one really thought Geurrero was a defensively good. I've explained in an older post that his gold glove did not represent defensive ability but rather changes in the game and the fact that -- that year -- he was the best of a bad lot. As for Turner and Springer ... Turner was not brought in for his defense and Springer is a 34 year old outfielder who is playing like a 34 year old outfielder. What is more ... Springer's defense was never particularly good. His primary value lay elsewhere.
Let me add that I am not saying this to shoot these players down. I watch the Jays. I cheer for them. I have my own favourites, like all fans. That is not going to stop. The point I want to make is this: there is no particular reason to be upset at what is being cast as the Jays sub-standard play. If this was supposed to be team that led with defense (which is a legitimate approach to winning baseball games), this is not the team to do that and we all know that. The Jays media need a good news story because it is impossible to disguise the weak offence through the first quarter of the seasons. I watched Blair and Barker's show one time last week and they were apoplectic. OK, fair enough. I was, too. But, in thinking about it later, I thought ... why? Why was I upset? I was upset because I held out hope that the Jays were good enough. I was skeptical of Turner but ... he might play good enough. If Vladdy and Bo take even half-a-step forward from last year and Varsho takes a step. Biggio plays better and Schneider is ... well half the real deal ... we're not in bad shape, I reasoned, with a strong starting staff and good bullpen.
There were so many "if"s in that sentence ... you can see the problem right away: having a good season was not a matter of playing to potential. A whole bunch of things had to go right that had an equally plausible chance of going wrong. Bo might take a step forward, or he might injure himself with that wild swing of his and spend half the season on the bench. In my view, it is time to face two facts: (1) this team is not as good as advertised and even with a hot streak (something their loses to Detroit don't suggest that is coming down the tube), and (2) is not good enough to win it all. The way forward, in my view, has to be something other than what the Jays have been doing.
What have the Jays been doing and what is the alternative? In 2020, the Jays played unexpectedly well in the Covid shortened season. The offence looked good. The Jays had strong OPS+ (a measure of offence ability in relationship to the rest of the league) numbers and the problems they had -- pitching -- were clear and could be addressed. The Jays core was also young. Biggio, who had a fine season, was the oldest of the potential stars at 24, but only one starter (Shaw at 3B) was 30. The Jays didn't really improve in 2021 in terms of their place in the standings but they had three players score 100 runs and four drive in 100. Shaw was gone and Marcus Semien brought in. He was the second oldest player with the addition of Spring, now 31. But the core remained young.
The Jays management continued to tinker with the team, canning their manager and replacing him with his bench coach (a move I didn't like), and bringing in older players to address weaknesses to the point where in 2023, the Jays were old. Five starters were older than 30 (Belt was 35 and Merrifield 34) and their youngest starter (Berrios) was 29 (let's leave Manoah aside because of his odd season). The oldness continued this year: Ernie Clement, who is getting a chance to play 3B is actually 28 and Biggio is now 29. What all this means is this: the strategy which was to see the core as solid and add the veteran pieces to win, didn't work. And, the Jays have now reached the point of no return, or what economists call diminishing marginal utility. Adding more veteran pieces can't produce wins. And there is precious little help on the farm. This was a solution that was touted last year. I'd give Schneider a chance to play but he was a 24 year old rookie. That is about average and does not really project out as player around whom one builds a team (although, with the right development he could be valuable). Of the other AAA players periodically discussed: Barger is 24, Lukes is 29, and Horwitz is 26. Only Martinez, at 22, could be considered a legitimate star prospect.
The alternative for the Jays is to burn down the house. And, this is what I think they should do. While the Jays can't win, they have a lot of potentially valuable trade pieces. This might be a case where the parts are greater than the sum of the whole. The Jays should be willing to trade just about everyone they have to rebuilt what is, in fact, a weak minor league system. Baltimore, by contract, a team already playing considerably better than the Jays also has a much better farm system. For the Jays, this does not bode well for the future.
The Jays should be willing to unload just about all their starters, with the exceptions of Berrios -- because of the long-term contract-- and Manoah (because he's under control for a number of years). Despite the unevenness of their pitching, teams will be interested in Bassitt and Gausman once we get closer to the trade deadlines and perhaps even now. Kikuchi has pitched well and he's a lefty so he will draw interest. Springer, Kiermaier and Turner might be harder sells but it is a question of matchups. No one other than the Jays wanted to offer Kiermaier a job as a starter (and we can see why), but he might appeal to a team looking for a fourth or fifth outfielder defensive sub, pinch runner, occasional start verse a righty. I'd trade Jansen, too. His value will not get higher. And, I'd trade anyone from the bullpen I could.
Finally, I'd be willing to trade Vladdy and Bo as well. That might not be popular and I suspect they will both land on their feet elsewhere, play well, and be named to several all-star teams each. The Jays seem to have taught Vladdy pitch selection, but since the Jays are years away from winning, I think it is an even bet that he'll hit the free agent market after next season, as will Bo. The Jays can maximize the return ... getting a number of prospects and likely top-notch prospects ... by trading them now. Said differently, since there is a good chance that the Jays will lose both of these players, the logical thing is to maximize their value now. That value can be maximized by getting good younger players around whom the Jays will built for the future.
Another finally: I think it also goes without saying that the current coaching staff is almost certainly not the team to bring up a new team. John Schneider does not seem to really have a good feel for the game. He makes odd decisions -- some of which I've ranted about before -- the logic of which is lost on me. He seems to make a habit of yanking a pitcher one pitch too late. Pete Walker works best tinkering with veterans and has not shows any ability to work with younger pitchers. Ask Nate Pearson how his career is going.
I was listening to commentators say that it is not the coaches fault. That the players have to be accountable. I do think there is something in that but, the Jays also pay those coaches a lot to do things and the thing they were supposed to do is figure out how to win. It is rotten but if you pay someone to do a job and they don't do it ... do you stick with them?
The same goes for upper level management. The truth of the matter is that Ross Atkins let the Jays enter the season without a lead off batter. Few teams win without one. He decided what the Jays needed was a bunch of players who could not play the field (Turner, Vogelbach, Votto, Vladdy). And, their player development is just messed up. What position does Biggio actually play?
In short, it is time for a fire sale.
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