Chris Bassitt is a Smart Guy

As the World Series wound to its close in a hail of hyperbole and a triumph of big budget teams, Blue Jays media is rife with rumours.  That might be because they don't have a lot else to discuss. The Jays have made some significant steps behind the scenes, firing coaches and player development folk in the minor league system. This is simply a belated recognition of what everyone already knew: the Jays suck at player development. If these rumours are to be believed, the Jays are in on just about every potential free agent that they can in on in an effort to rapidly redevelop (what baseball folk call "reload") the team to be competitive (aka, make the playoffs) next year. What is interesting is that the most intelligent comments we've heard on the Jays season likely came from one of their players, Chris Bassitt, who strikes me as a pretty observant guy. Before the end of the season Bassitt gave an impromptu assessment of the Jays season and what went wrong. His assessment is basically correct. And, if it is basically correct, it suggest that the Jays woes will likely continue. Why? 

In that interview -- after which Jays reporters and media people were at great pains to deny that he said what he said -- Bassitt said the Jays had three problems:

1. The Jays had no back up plan. They allocated close to $700 million to signing Shohei Ohtani -- who landed with the Dodgers -- but didn't have a plan in place if -- as it turned out -- they didn't sign him. In effect, the Jays put all their eggs in one basket. They quickly tried to cobble together some kind of back up plan (Vogelbach, Kiermaier, Turner, IKF) but that was more a prayer than a plan and it was about as effective as one should have expected it to be. Bassitt's point: the front office is paid a lot of money to have a plan.  The fact that they didn't, is a problem. 

2. The Jays are not getting any younger. I forget Bassitt's exact wording but it was something like "there is no way to make me twenty six again." His point is this: the Jays entered the season with an aging pitching staff. They were, in particular, relying on starters who were good but whose careers were necessarily going to start to decline because of their age. Berrios pitched well (but he was the youngest of the crop). Bassitt, Gausman, and the now departed Kikutchi all took steps backwards in a year where -- failing a real plan for team development -- the Jays front office was counting on a repeat of the previous season from the starters. It just wasn't there. All pitchers added to their ERAs and Bassitt himself pitched significantly fewer innings that the year before. This put strain on a bullpen that, in turn, just wasn't there and was, in turn, relying on relying on aging pitchers with injury histories. 

The logic could, of course, be extended to positions players. Springer and Kiermaier were just not going to get better. 

3. The Jays are not one player away.  I don't remember the exact number but I think it was four. Bassitt suggested that the Jays were four -- all-star quality -- players away from competitiveness. Put in other words, the difference between the Jays and making the playoff is not a player or two having an off season but a significant difference in talent. The gap is wide.

If that is the problem what can be done about it? 

Well, rebuilding the farm system and player development is a necessary first step. The Jays were putting all their eggs in one basket because their system was simply not producing the players that would make them competitive. The Jays aren't Baltimore.  

Put all this together, and what it means is that the Jays will likely not be competitive this year coming, if we define competitiveness as something like having a real chance at winning. I strongly suspect the Jays will be better next year. I suspect, for instance, that Bo Bichette was actually injured the entire year but the Jays kept him in games -- despite truly rotten play both offensively and defensively -- out of sheer desperation. I think they were hoping the problems that plagued Bichette were not as serious as they ended up being, that he'd catch fire -- and he is a streaky hitter -- and propel that Jays into competition for a wild card spot. I do worry about Bichette's long-term prospects. I'm not sold on his D and his swing looks to me to guarantee injury problems. But, he was nowhere near as bad as he played this past year. 

I also think Alejandro Kirk might have finally gotten his act together after what was a close to two year slump. He end up with a slightly sub 100 OBS, which means offensively he was costing the Jays games, and scored a measly 23 runs. He is not a kid anymore either. He'll be 26 next year and has been in the league since his late-season arrival at the age of 21. But, regular playing time after Jansen was traded seemed to do him good. 

Finally, I think the Jays will go after free agents. There are free agents I'd be worried about. Santander is a player I've long liked, but he had his best seasons at 30, the year he is set to be a free agent. He also plays right field, which means that if Springer is coming back (!?), one of them will have to move to left.  My view, however, is that signing Santander would be a lot like signing Springer: it would add an expensive name to the payroll on a longer term contract that the team will end up regretting after a year or two. 

Even with this, I suspect the Jays will look at add real value via free agency or trades.

They Jays will be better but ... so what? They won't be a good enough to win the World Series. They might get into the playoffs but is that our definition of competitive? I honestly don't know. It might be. It might be what the front office is setting as a goal. And, that being the case, it is likely within reach. But, Chris Bassitt is a smart guy. If you definition of competitiveness is something else: say, a reasonable chance of winning, then, the Jays are much further away.