Quebec Election II

The Quebec election results were a bit different the I expected but potentially important for those of us interested in Canada and Canadian Studies. I posted a "before" the election post, suggesting some things we might look for -- things that would be interesting to find out -- in this election. This is my "after" post. I won't address every issue I raised in the before post. This is, after all, a blog. Rather, I will try to address a couple of matters and tie them into the wider dynamics of Canada. In this regard, there seems to me to be several points that we might note.

First, the media coverage was an odd mixture of good and bad. There were the usual "we don't care about Quebec anymore" comments but one really has to wonder about them. Were they made by people who did, once, care about Quebec and no longer do, as if there was now something wrong with Quebec? That is the tenor of some articles but there is, I think, good reason to wonder about this. First, there have always been anti-Quebec individuals outside of Quebec and, if given a microphone, they simply adapt to the latest discourse, whether it is "equality of provinces" or "we don't care anymore." We'd need to know more about who was making these comments and why. If, for instance, the people saying "we don't care" are the same people who ignore politics in their own provinces (say, don't vote, don't really know much about government, etc.), then the comment is not surprising and nothing to be concerned about.

Well ... OK, that's wrong.  The fact that there are a sizeable chunk of Canadians who don't know a lot about public life is something to be concerned about. My point is that it does not necessarily indicate an anti-Quebec feeling. Instead, it indicates a general alienation from public and political life. That is a matter of concern but the concerns are different then if there is animosity toward people in one particular province.

I was, however, pleasantly surprised by a number of thoughtful media comments. This bodes well. Let's see if this carries over into other elections that are on the horizon but perhaps the quality of public commentary in Canada is on the rise?

Second, the election results did indicate that the Liberals again benefitted from ... what to call it ... polling misrepresentation. The Libs did better the expected (close to the margin of error in terms of popular vote but better) and the PQ did worse (again, it was close to the margin of error). In other words, there were no polling guffaws as with the Alberta election but there was some inaccuracy. That inaccuracy, however, was close to the traditional inaccuracy of polling in Quebec which underestimates federalist/Liberal support and overestimates sovereigntist/PQ support. In short, the problems of public opinion polling were there but were more the common/traditional problems then the breakdown we saw in Alberta.

Third, CAQ support was right on target. This bodes well for a couple of different groups. First, it continues to suggest (as did surprising CPC support federally in the 2006 federal election and ADQ support a couple of provincial elections ago in Quebec. This suggests that there is a body of Quebecers who are conservative in their approach to public life and who are looking to have their voices heard by committing themselves to voting for a conservative party. To date, they have not been able to find a viable one (which, I am sure, they view as a drag) as neither the Harper Conservative at the federal level nor the ADQ proved viable. Will the ADQ?

This is an interesting question because both the PQ and the QLP have flirted with conservative policies over the years. The absence of a conservative voice in Quebec has allowed both parties to adopt conservative policies (get tough on students, law and order, debt reduction, etc.) without having to actually be conservative. As a result, both the QLP and the PQ have been able to maintain their progressive image despite what they are actually doing in power. Will the development of a viable conservative party in the CAQ change this? Will it force the other parties to differentiate themselves more clearly and either accept or disavow conservative policies. If so, it would bode well for both democracy and honesty in advertising in Quebec.

The other group might be called "third wayers": individuals looking for an alternative to the PQ/Lib independence/federalism ideologically charged stand off. I've argued before that the result of this stand off has been a "no win" for anyone. To what degree does support for CAQ mean that these Quebecers -- those looking for an alternative to the divisive politics of federalism in Quebec -- have found home and what will this mean? The CAQ mobilized a language of normalization -- ignore the issue and get to work on other things. IOW, a CAQ government will function like a government in any other province, addressing concerns on bread and butter issues. This might sound appealing. Heck, it does to me but is this view compatible with conservatism?  Said differently, are those interested in finding a third way also conservative in inclination? If not, this does not bode well for the CAQ.  The ADQ, as it turned out, mobilized many of the same policies and ideas and language but could not hold their party together. Will the CAQ, which contains some more politically seasoned individuals, be able to do what the ADQ could not: create a viable third way conservative party?

This election, then, and as a final word, did not decide very much. It made a possible future -- a normalization of Quebec provincial politics -- a bit more of a possibility but it leaves us with interesting and important questions for the future, for Quebec, and for Canada.

Quebec Election II

Today is the first day of school (the first day of classes) at Mount Allison and by good luck, I am teaching Regionalism this year. Regionalism is, as I am sure you can imagine, a fairly standard course in Canadian Studies. Regional discontent, alienation, conflict, etc., are common and important themes in Canadian history. The good luck is that the Quebec election is slated for today and so this provides me with a ready made assignment or sorts.

It seems to me that there are a several key questions that need to be asked on the eve of the election:

1. How accurate will be the polling predictions. The Alberta election, of course, raised serious questions about the accuracy of polling. Will Quebec fall in line with the inaccuracy or will it produce the more normal results of good polling being relatively accurate? As I think I've mentioned before, Quebec political polling tends to under-estimate federalist support. I don't really know why this is but it is a pattern. If this pattern holds true, the Liberal Party will do better then the polling numbers are suggesting, even if this "better" is only in terms of popular vote.

The wild card here, of course, is the CAQ. The issue is not simply how well CAQ will do, but how much of the vote it will take from the Liberals.  I'll go out on a limb and suggest that the polling so far has been pretty accurate.

2. Will the split electorate lead to a PQ majority government. At this point in time, it seems pretty clear that the PQ will "win" the election but their percentage of popular vote will be in the mid to low 30s. In other words, they will have the largest share in what looks like a three way race. I will also go out on a limb and suggest that a PQ victory will have little to do with sovereignty. They have the hard core sovereignty vote wrapped up in most regions of the province. They are being challenged by Quebec Solidaire and Option nationale in a couple of places but, really, separatists don't have many other options. What is clear, however, is that separatism, as a preferred option for Quebecers, is less popular then it has been in ages. Indeed, the PQ is not polling much beyond its hard core base support. The key question here is how will a PQ victory be interpreted outside of Quebec.

This is an important question because of the news stories that say things like "PQ closing in on majority government." Unless the polls are wrong -- and that is possible -- the PQ is not closing in on anything. It has not really grown its percentage of the popular vote in any significant way since the election was called. So, you can see my interpretation: the PQ is not closing in on anything. It is simply benefitted from the way in which the First Past the Post system works. (There is nothing horrible about this, btw, other parties have clearly benefitted from this over the years, including the CPC at the national level.)

3. Does a vote for CAQ indicate a quest of a third way for Quebecers. I've argued in the past that Quebecers are fed up with the federalist/separatist divide and are looking for a third option. Support for the ADQ two elections ago was evidence to which I pointed. But, the CAQ is also a fairly conservative party (like the ADQ). Does its support indicate a quest of a third way or conservative Quebecers coming out to vote and support a political option that they have not really had since the old Union nationale and Crediste parties went under.

4. Finally ... what percentage of Quebecers will vote? Will the downward trend in voting participation continue?

Quebec Election: What to Watch For

Let the speculation begin! Quebec goes to the polls in one of the more interesting … actually, just about all Quebec elections of late have been interesting. I normally refrain from making electoral predictions because: (1) I don't like turning politics into a spectator sport. It deserves better. And (2) I am not very good at it. I have number cruncher friends who are and I rely on them. Instead, I usually try to comment on elections in a way that isolates (I hope) the more important issues that might be missed by the mainstream media in their sports-like coverage. For instance, instead of talking about whether the Conservatives have increased or decreased their support since the last poll, I try to look the shifting dynamics of Canada and what this entails in terms of Canada's political, economic, etc., future.

It is amazingly difficult to do this for Quebec because the Quebec political spectrum is both so fractured and so … well … homogeneous. Whoever win the election will have to deal with limited budgetary resources, for instance, that will circumscribe policy choices. Moreover, as Charest has seen, the high level of leftist activism in Quebec makes it difficult for any political party that wants to govern for very long to move very far from the centre of the spectrum. The QLP might look like a right wing party in Quebec but their history says otherwise and they look pretty centrist if you plunked them down in Ontario, BC, or Alberta.

Even with these limits, however, Quebecers have a bit of a choice on their hands whereby they can elect for the status quo Liberals (centrist, machine-style politics); centre-left separatism in the form of the PQ, which almost fell apart a year ago owing to leadership problems and lack of collective vision (at least according to those who left the party) and neo, neo right CAQ, a jazzier version of the ADQ. In other words, Quebecers have choices. I don't, btw, disagree with some PQ policies. If I were in power, I'd keep taxes higher to ensure lower tuition. Agreeing or disagreeing with the policies is not the point: it is that Quebecers do have choices and it will be interesting to see which Quebecers make which choices.

And, this is my first, point. Those outside Quebec often treat Quebec as some sort of monolithic entity. It ain't. The electoral divisions -- including what looks like a real socialist party to me in Quebec Solidaire -- are important. Quebecers don't all vote the same way and the divisions just aren't anglo v franco. It will be interesting to see who demographically, for instance, supports the CAQ. Will the PQ base contract or expand; who are they losing and who are they gaining, etc. This election might continue the interrupted -- by the collapse of the ADQ -- movement in Quebec to a multiparty system with defined core bases and ideological proclavities.

My second point is a bit speculative but it will also be interesting to see who can cooperate with whom. The Liberals are coming off a majority government but they worked with a minority before that. It was not a long government. Charest rightly gambled that support for the right-wing ADQ was artificially high and that their supporters could be poached because they were not committed to that ideological perspective. This time, poaching might be harder. The right appears better organized in Quebec then it has been since the days of the Union nationale. I don't think they think they are going to win. My guess is that they have some number of seats in mind that they want to walk away with, ensuring a minority government and ensuring that they have some sway in that government.

Let's assume that the PQ and LIberals cannot cooperate with each other. Who is the natural partner for the CAQ? The CAQ says that they view the independence issue as a waste of time and money; economically, their policies are closer to the Liberals. Would they be willing to work with the Liberals, to keep a Liberal government -- one that might be … well … corrupt -- in power? Would they negotiate their support on a case by case basis? Would the fact that the PQ -- if a minority government -- could not get an independence referendum law through the National Assembly without them mean that they would be willing to work with the PQ (because they would know that the independence option was, as they want, put on hold).

Finally, it will be interesting to see  how accurate the polls are. As the recent Alberta election demonstrated, the pollsters are pretty far from infallible. There was, to be sure, a lot of hand wringing among pundits and pollsters after the Alberta election and a lot of "well, we were right except for X and Y and Z" type of discourse. In Quebec, polls have traditionally under-estimated federalist support. One prediction I will make is that I don't think that will be the case this time. The situation in Alberta was a failure of method, a failure on the part of those discussing the election to ask the right questions.  I don't expect anyone to ask the right questions in Quebec either but I think that we will get a more accurate read because of the CAQ.

Why? My theory is that polls under-estimate federalist support in Quebec for one of two reasons: sample failures (too many respondents from rural Quebec) or because there was a reticent on the part some Quebecers to support the PQ because of its stand on separatism. So, what you had were people who did not want to vote Libreral and might even have disagreed with the things that Liberals stood for but voted Liberal out of fear of the PQ. So, when polled, these people (not liking the Liberals) said they were going to vote against them which meant voting PQ. But, when push came to shove, they decided that federalism was very important to them and held their nose and voted Liberal.  With CAQ in the field, they don't have to do this and I think they will know that. Hence, more accuracy.