Most of the time, I can figure out what the Jays front office is doing. I might agree with it; I might not, but I can usually see what they're attempting to do. Last season, for instance, was a gamble. It is the logical thread that runs through problematic roster decisions. The Jays front office knew a number of things going into last season. They knew, for instance, that the starting staff they had put together was going to be good. They (and I) might have gotten the reasons why it was good wrong (just for the record, changing park effects might also have played a role), but they had reason to believe it was good. Likewise their bullpen and defense. These were supposedly the missing pieces to the puzzle that would put them over the top. The gamble that they took was that their offense was "good enough." They were removing key offensive pieces to bolster the D and bullpen, while guessing that Vladdy, Bo, Kirk, Springer (who, shifted to a less demanding defensive position, might be able to play a full year) and others would contribute enough offense to push the team into the playoffs, particularly in the light of expected off seasons in Boston and NY. If it had worked, everyone would have been happy and this off-season would look differently. In fairness, they may not have been wrong. They just weren't right enough.
It didn't work and the Jays front office has been in pursuit of even bigger gambles. Press reports seem to suggest that they are in the game, but they're not winning. They have been unable to land the big names -- Ohtani and Soto -- who would have helped them. In the meantime, their team aged dramatically, Chapman apparently wants a large multi-year contract to return, and it is not clear who is going to play second base, third base, and either centre or right field, depending on where Varsho ends up. The Jays could try re-signing Chapman but I'm not certain I'd want to pay 100 mil $ over multiple years to find out whether the decline in his offensive ability is real or not.
So ... what happens this year? The problem with gambling is that it leads to more gambles. Look at what has happened to San Diego over the last several seasons as an object lesson. When a gamble goes wrong it can really go wrong. And, what is worse, it limits your options for the future. San Diego, for instance, found themselves in a place where their front office decided that their gambles had failed. Their high-priced players were not capable of winning and so they had one choice left: blow up the team. The Jays are not in this situation ... but they are close and that is, I think, the reason for the oddities of this off-season and an inability to figure out what their front office is doing.
The front office gamble last season had several effects. First, it made the Jays older. They shipped out a young and very promising catcher, kept Merrifield to play 2B and sometimes in the outfield, signed a veteran starter, and brought in veteran outfield help. The Jays still have young talent (Vladdy and Kirk are 24, which is about the age most players make it to the majors, Bo is 25 and Varsho is 26). Biggio, Espinal, and Jansen are all 28 (established in prime players), Springer is 33, Berrios is the youngest starter at 29. The others are all 32+ except Manoah, about whom we don't know much (except a lot of trade bait rumours). What is more, the decision to not play Biggio has likely cost him development time. Biggio has not necessarily made it difficult to keep him out of the lineup but one has to wonder. He was benched, first, for Espinal based on a good half season; then relegated to playing out of position in a backup/platoon role. Said differently, he's 28 but with an unknown future. His defence was never great to begin with and with all the missed time ... it hasn't improved. My guess is that he is at best a break-even defender at second and less than average at third.
Where does all this leave us? With the same bunch of questions we had at the end of the season and a ticking clock. In the not-too-distant future, the Jays will start to lose their talent to free agency, particularly, I think, if this team does not do more to win. With Spring training just around the corner -- which is amazing to think about -- this kind of indeterminacy can't be good. What is more, because the Jays are not a young team, their window is closing. And, I might be missing it but there doesn't seem to be a tonne of talent in the minor league system and little that seems major-league ready. With a small core of young talent moving toward free agency, an older starting staff, and holes in the lineup, the Jays will enter Spring training and, I suspect, the upcoming season on edge. Certainly, the ongoing media speculation on just about every possible free agent or trade indicates that the media, at least, will be looking for answers.
Are there any? I have little desire to engage in idle speculation since there are so many rumours so I'll content myself with just one: Cody Bellinger. I like him and he had a good season last year, but his value is likely higher than it ever will be again. He is going to want to be paid and the market for outfielders has been pushed sky high in recent years. If you were getting a guarantee, that is OK, but Bellinger is not a guarantee. His year, last year, was good, but it was not great. He has some flexibility because he can play first base or the outfield but he is an average defender. Over the span of his career, his dWar (a common measure of defensive ability) is OK to average. At 27, he is younger than Biggio or Jansen, but he is also injury prone and has been remarkably inconsistent. Like Chapman, I am not sure I'd want to pay what I'm going to have to pay to find out what is coming next.
Yet, these are the decisions the Jays have to consider and that is really my point. The Jays may elect to gamble again because, like San Diego, they feel they have to. A veteran team, looming free agency costs to secure the young core, an unspectacular farm system, and line-up holes all point in that direction.
Will the Jays gamble again? ... it remains to be seen. They are also in dog fight of a division. The Yankees will be better next year as will Boston (who seems to have a core of good younger players), Baltimore should continue to improve and Tampa Bay is ... well ... Tampa Bay. Sooner or later they have to fall to earth or have an off season but they are likely the best managed team in the AL and that works in their favour.
Will the Jays gamble? I don't know but the logic I've tried to lay out suggests that they will. There is a different kind of gamble they could take, one that does not involve blowing up their team to start again or venturing too deeply into the market for the remaining free agents. It involves rethinking their analytics-based approach to baseball. This is a gamble I'd really like to see them take but here, at least, I wouldn't recommend holding your breath.
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