Not yet on Fire ... Or, Blue Jays corrective measures

The increasing media consensus is that the Jays are going to deal at the trade deadline.  This isn't clairvoyance. It simply makes sense. Ultimately deals are determined by both what one has to trade and what other teams want. Thus the Jays decision to DFA (in effect, to cut) Kevin Kiermaier, a player who I thought they could get something for, makes sense in this light: they couldn't. The Jays might have preferred to trade Kiermaier, even if the return would be slim, but if no one wants to offer even that slim return, the Jays are left with little option.

In a previous post, I suggested that the Jays should burn down the house, engage in a fire sale, and start a multiyear rebuilding process. That process has not yet started. The Jays have made a significant number of roster moves but these moves are more corrective measures. I'll complement Atkens and Shapiro for making them. Why? Because they are, in fact, admitting that earlier roster moves -- particularly building the team for this year -- were mistakes, have failed and they are in the process of trying to extradite themselves from that failure while, I suspect, hoping that some combination of players can be found to make a run at the expanded wildcard playoffs. Said differently, the roster moves we have seen so far do not necessarily presage a fire sale, although they well could. What have those moves been? 

Well, they actually started in Spring Training when the Jays front office conceded a point that had been evident for some time: Santiago Espinal was not a major league player and he was -- and had been -- taking a roster spot from players that were more talented. 

Move #2: Mitch White was sold to the Giants. Enough said except to note that Schneider had used White in crucial situations last year. 

Move #3: Designating Dan Vogelbach. The Jays media tried mightily to find a reason why Vogelbach was even on the team. He couldn't play defense and Turner was their FT DH, with plans to use Vladdy there as well to save the periodic embarrassments at 1B. Dan and Buck noted frequently about that Vogelbach brought something to the team because he "talked baseball" and, ergo, was supposedly a good clubhouse guy. They explained that his .186 batting average was not really his fault because he could not get consistent at bats. This was likely true but also irrelevant. What the Jays front office did not seem to calculate when they signed him  was where more consistent at bats were going to come from anyway. 

Move #4: trading Cavan Biggio. I thought Biggio was going to a good player. I never pegged him as a star but I thought he'd hit for an average average and that combined with above average defense, good plate discipline (which would put him on base), good base running skills and modest power would keep him in the starting lineup for, say, eight years. The Espinal fiasco ended that as the Jays tried to ride the hot hand and left Biggio's development to ... well ... no one, saddling him with a position (3B), he could not really play. The Jays, then, tried to convert him to a Ben Zobrist kind of "super sub" but playing that role is not a matter of will (which Biggio surely had) but a skill set (which he did not). They finally admitted that they had no place for him on the team and traded him to the Dodgers. 

Move #5: Giving up on Manoah's season. I don't know what is wrong with Manoah. The likely truth is that Jays don't either, but rather than suffer through another bad -- and potentially corrosive -- year, the Jays elected to sideline him early and see what could be done with his arm. 

Move #6: Designating Tim Mayza. Mayza has done a good job for the Jays but he was also a 32 year old pitcher who was getting no one out. A few years ago, Mayza might have hung on longer as a one-out lefty. That role no longer exists. The Jays don't really have any hot prospects but the idea that Mayza will ever again be a key part of the bullpen needed to be put to rest and someone else given a shot. 

Move #7: Kiermaier: the truth of the matter is that Kiermaier's offence has become so bad that no amount of defensive was going to save him. I suspect the Jays knew this when they signed KK, but gambled because they believed they needed outfielders (which they might) and were hoping he could post stats similar to last year in a limited role.  Keeping Kiermaier, however, was keeping Varsho in left field. In other words, it was keeping a better defensive outfielder in a traditional hitters position, where his own offensive weaknesses were becoming more and more evident as the season wore on (and for the second year in a row). Moving Varsho to a more defensively demanding position puts the best outfielder the Jays have in that position and better covers over his offensive limits. It also provides Schneider with playing time. Schneider does not look like an outfielder to me but he was not becoming one giving up playing time to players who are not the future. 

This amounts to a fairly impressive list of moves but with next to zero return, which is the point, of course, to blowing up one's team: the goal is to trade established players for prospects. It appears, no one wants -- yet -- to deal with the Jays and they have found themselves forced to designate (the baseball equivalent of fire) players as opposed to trade them. 

Moreover, these moves don't clear salary. The Jays sent a bit of salary away with Biggio and Espinal and moving Manoah to the IL (one assumes) has implications for insurance. But the other moves don't alleviate salary. Kiermaier cost the Jays 10$ million this year.  Because he's been designated, the Jays will remain on the hook for that salary, as they will for Vogelbach and Mayza. In baseball terms, we are not talking a huge amount of money, but the point is that these moves have not brought in new prospects nor cleared salary that might allow for free agent signings in the future. 

I think more moves are coming. My view is that this is a preliminary step. The Jays are correcting bad decisions they made earlier this year and getting playing time for players for whom they should have been finding playing time already. I think they are hoping something will click (like Schneider last year) and they will be able to settle their lineup, and make a late season run. I don't think there is a long leash on that. Dan and Joe mentioned it during today's game. The Jays are going to have to deal bigger pieces soon. Will that be a burn down? I don't know but I'd rather have a management that makes that decision intentionally than one that is forced into by its own poor decisions.